Meat Prices / Futures: Head to the box stores

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Meat Prices / Futures: Head to the box stores

Postby Boots » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:52 pm

See below and form yer own opinions, don't rely on mine. But putting on my banker/economist/the Great Carnac hat, one might predict that by or during college football season, meat prices for pork definitely and perhaps beef in the big box discount stores and the assorted CrapMarts should be getting more attractive. These are the outfits with the capital and cold storage space to take on meat from the distributors quickly on cheap mass buys, and then put it out on tease the customer discount specials and make money on volume. While feeder cattle and cluckers still look pretty strong (chickens around a long time high(?)), you gotta wonder if those levels are sustainable given the recent tariff changes will impact the export market. Looks like there is already impact displayed in the hog and live cattle markets. The key softening spot looks like the hog market. With corn markets softer, that might indicate growers are seeing cattle, hog, and chicken stocks being overproduced and looking to cut supply and feed out less stock; the Midwest. Despite the hot summer and spot droughts, looks like corn yields will still approach record levels, so that should keep the cost side of the pricing equation for feeder meats moderated or down. So any price increases would have to be driven by demand not cost, so if export demand drops due to tariffs and domestic demand stays stable, meat prices should soften. In theory.

OINK!!!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-piles ... 1532268000
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GF/
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/HE/
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LE/
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/A0Y00
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_chick ... orgia_dock
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZC/
http://www.farmfutures.com/story-weekly ... ew-0-30766
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Re: Meat Prices / Futures: Head to the box stores

Postby Rambo » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:27 pm

Thanks for that insight; interesting and appreciated

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